Thinking about swapping your gas furnace for a heat pump in Mississauga, but not sure what makes sense for comfort and cost? You are not alone. Energy prices, incentives, and technology have all shifted in the last couple of years, which makes a clear comparison hard. In this guide, you will see how today’s local rates, upfront costs, and cold‑weather performance stack up so you can choose confidently. Let’s dive in.
Heat pump vs gas: the quick take
A modern cold‑climate heat pump can heat most Mississauga homes comfortably and also provide efficient cooling. A gas furnace remains a familiar, lower‑upfront option. The better choice for you depends on electricity and gas pricing, your home’s insulation and ducts, and whether you prefer all‑electric or a hybrid setup. Studies for nearby Toronto suggest heat pumps are often the lowest total‑cost option under mid‑range assumptions, but results vary by home and usage (Canadian Climate Institute).
Energy prices in Mississauga today
Alectra Utilities publishes residential electricity rates. Recent examples show Tier 1 at 9.3¢/kWh and Tier 2 at 11.0¢/kWh, with Time‑of‑Use off‑peak as low as 7.6¢/kWh and on‑peak 15.8¢/kWh for May to October 2025 (Alectra rate options). Your actual bill depends on your chosen plan and usage.
For natural gas, the Ontario Energy Board lists historical commodity prices, which change through the year. An April 2025 example shows about 9.74¢/m³ for the commodity portion, before delivery and fixed charges (OEB historical natural gas rates). Enbridge has also noted federal carbon charge changes, including removal from customer bills effective April 1, 2025. Always check your most recent bill for the current line items (Enbridge carbon program update).
Operating cost example, step by step
Here is a simple snapshot using explicit assumptions. Use it to understand the drivers, then model with your own bills.
Assumptions for Mississauga example:
- Electricity price: 11¢/kWh blended across seasons and usage (within Alectra’s posted bands)
- Gas commodity price: 9.74¢/m³ example from April 2025 OEB table
- Gas furnace efficiency: 95% AFUE
- Heat pump seasonal average COP: 3.0
- Energy conversion: 1 m³ gas ≈ 10.36 kWh of energy (CER conversion table)
What it shows:
- Gas energy cost per kWh of heat delivered: about 0.99¢/kWh, using only the commodity portion.
- Heat pump cost per kWh of heat delivered: about 3.7¢/kWh at 11¢ electricity and COP 3.
- Key context: gas bills include fixed and delivery charges that raise the effective cost, especially at lower usage. Heat pumps can lower total annual spend by replacing both heating and cooling and by using off‑peak electricity. Your outcome depends on rate plan, seasonal COP, and whether you still keep gas service.
Bottom line: Use your actual Alectra and Enbridge bills to build a house‑specific comparison. The example above is a learning tool, not a quote.
Comfort and performance in winter
Cold‑climate air‑source heat pumps are designed to deliver useful heat in southern Ontario winters and often maintain capacity down to about −20 to −25°C when properly sized. NRCan documents performance criteria and shows typical COP ranges across temperatures (NRCan heat pump efficiency). If your home has significant heat loss, consider air sealing and insulation to reduce required capacity. The City encourages envelope upgrades to curb energy bills and improve comfort (Mississauga retrofit guidance).
Upfront costs and typical ranges
- Ductless mini‑split, single zone: roughly 3,000 to 7,000 CAD installed. Multi‑zone systems cost more.
- Ducted central air‑source heat pump retrofit: roughly 6,500 to 15,000 CAD in GTA examples, higher for premium cold‑climate models or duct upgrades.
- High‑efficiency gas furnace replacement: often 4,000 to 7,000 CAD installed.
These are broad GTA ranges that vary by model, capacity, and home complexity. Electrical service upgrades, such as moving to a 200‑amp panel for larger systems or electric backup heat, can add several thousand dollars. Review ductwork and electrical needs early (City of Toronto heat pump guide).
Incentives to check before you buy
Program status has changed since 2023. As of 2025, the Canada Greener Homes Grant has closed to new applicants, though some related federal programs and loans remain. Check the NRCan page for current status and deadlines (NRCan Greener Homes update). Enbridge has updated or transitioned its rebate offerings in Ontario. Review the current Enbridge program page and confirm eligibility and intake windows before you commit (Enbridge Home Efficiency Rebate Plus).
Tip: Date any quotes or rebate figures in your notes and double‑check the program page right before you purchase.
Hybrid or all‑electric?
- All‑electric heat pump: good if your home is well insulated and you want to eliminate gas service and future gas fixed charges. Ensure adequate electrical capacity.
- Hybrid heat pump plus gas furnace: common in Mississauga. The heat pump handles most days, the furnace covers the coldest spikes. This can balance comfort, cost, and capacity while keeping upfront electrical work smaller.
A qualified HVAC contractor can model your annual cost for both paths using your actual bills and temperature data.
Installation checklist for Mississauga homes
- Confirm duct condition and sizing for a central system, or plan zones for ductless.
- Check electrical service and panel capacity early.
- Plan outdoor unit placement with snow and ice clearance.
- Ask for a cold‑climate model, sized for your home’s heat loss.
- Get two to three quotes from licensed contractors with cold‑climate experience.
- Consider envelope upgrades first to reduce required capacity and improve comfort.
Resale and local signals to watch
Heat pumps can improve year‑round comfort and may enhance marketability by lowering operating carbon and providing efficient cooling. Regional studies also report modest value uplifts in some markets, although actual resale effects are local and time specific (Canadian Climate Institute). Mississauga’s municipal guidance encourages retrofits and heat pump adoption, which supports long‑term demand for efficient homes (Mississauga retrofit guidance).
Ready to compare your options with your move or renovation plans? Reach out to the team at Tait Realty for local guidance and a plan that balances comfort, costs, and resale goals.
FAQs
Will a heat pump keep a Mississauga home warm in a cold snap?
- Modern cold‑climate models are rated to work in southern Ontario winters, often to about −20 to −25°C, but homes with high heat loss may still need backup or a hybrid system; proper sizing by a qualified contractor is key.
Are heat pumps cheaper to run than gas in Mississauga?
- It depends on Alectra and Enbridge rates, fixed gas delivery charges, your heat pump’s seasonal COP, and the fact that a heat pump also replaces your A/C; model using your recent bills for an accurate answer.
What rebates are available for Mississauga homeowners in 2025?
- The Canada Greener Homes Grant is closed to new applicants and utility offerings have changed, so always check current NRCan and Enbridge program pages and note intake windows before you buy.
What does a typical heat pump cost in Mississauga?
- Rough GTA ranges: about 3,000 to 7,000 CAD for a single‑zone ductless, and 6,500 to 15,000 CAD or more for a ducted central retrofit; electrical or duct upgrades can add to the total.
Do I need an electrical panel upgrade for a heat pump?
- Some larger systems or all‑electric setups need more capacity, often a 200‑amp panel, so confirm with a licensed electrician during quoting.
Should I choose a hybrid heat pump plus gas furnace?
- Hybrid is a practical middle path that uses the heat pump most of the time and the furnace on the coldest days, which can balance comfort and costs without major electrical work.
